Forecast model 

To provide a better insight in the return on investment the Issuer has made a forecast model available that each (potential) Bondholder can download. In this forecast model the (potential) Bondholder can calculate all different type of scenario’s regarding the return on investment, based on:

  • the size of the participation in the Bond;
  • storage period of the bottles; 
  • sales of the bottles; 
  • price increase of the bottles;
    • price increase of the bottles in stock (year on year);
    • price increase of a new batch;
  • effectuation of the conversion right;
  • forcasted dividend income after conversion. 

The standard forecast scenario included in the downloadable forecast model is based on the following assumptions:

  • The calculation is based on 4 Bonds with a total value of EUR 100.000,-;
  • The interest exists out of 366 bottles of Classic Red Wine per year;
  • A current market price of € 25,10;
  • An price increase of the bottles in stock with a growth percentage of2% year on year;
  • An price increase of a new batch of 2% relative to the price in the previous year; 
  • No resale to the Red Church Group, with a discount of 20% of the market price; 
  • A storage fee per bottle that is stored by the Red Church Group of € 0,125 per year; 
  • A transport fee of € 0,75 per bottle;
  • A conversion of the 4 Bonds end of 2026; 
  • A conversion of the total Bond for 75% end of 2026;
  • Dividend payments based on the growth plans and forecast of the Red Church Group till 2029;
  • No dividend will be distributed by the Red Church Group untill the bond in her total is redeemed and/or converted;
  • An value increase regarding the received share capital, through the converison, has been left out of consideration because at the time of issuance of the Bond it is too speculative and the Issuer has no influence on this development. therefor the end return / value of the participation is equal to the made investments. As a result, any increase or decrease in the value of the participation in the Red Church Group is disregarded in the return on investment calculation. 

Based on the above assumptions and scenario's the return on investment in the standard downloadable forecast will have an IRR of 19,77%. 

The forecasted IRR based on the above assumptions without conversion and a duration till the end of the Bond result in return of 9,57%

 

The standard forecast scenario included in the downloadable forecast model is included for illustrative purposes. No assurance can be given that the actual situation will be in line with this forecast and any scenario's included therein. It is likely that the actual situation will deviate from this forecast and the scenario's included therein.